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First, the growth rate of production capacity slows down
On the supply side, the release of new capacity for bisphenol A has been limited in the past two years. According to statistics, as of 2017, the total production capacity of bisphenol A in China reached 1.24 million tons, and the output was only 904,700 tons; the total annual import volume was 435,200 tons, and the import dependence was 32.48%. In 2018, there was no new bisphenol A. Production capacity has emerged. At present, there are 8 bisphenol A production enterprises with an annual output of about 1,176,100 tons. In the later period, only the capacity of Changchun Chemical's 135,000 tons/year bisphenol A was released this year, and the supply was tight.
Second, the overall price upward
From the perspective of market operation in 2018, the bisphenol A market as a whole showed a high and wide fluctuation trend. Compared with 2017, whether it is the highest price, the lowest price or the average price, there are different degrees of increase. Take the East China market as an example. In 2018, the highest point of the domestic bisphenol A market reached 1.54 million yuan (ton price, the same below), the lowest point was 10,400 yuan, and the total price difference was about 5,000 yuan. From the perspective of the annual average price, the annual average price of domestic bisphenol A in 2018 is about 13,700 yuan, up 31.34% over the previous year.
Third, strong downstream demand
According to industry analysts, the upward price of bisphenol A market is related to the sharp increase in downstream demand. Last year, the total production capacity of domestic polycarbonate production projects reached 170,000 tons, and the demand for bisphenol A was significantly increased. It is understood that in the downstream demand of bisphenol A in 2018, polycarbonate accounted for 48%, epoxy resin accounted for 51%, epoxy resin is still the largest user of domestic bisphenol A. However, with the rapid development of the downstream polycarbonate industry, the share has increased rapidly. Without accident, polycarbonate will soon exceed the epoxy resin to become the largest downstream of bisphenol A.
In the later period, the capacity of polycarbonate will continue to be released this year. The production of Sichuan Zhonglan New Materials, Hubei Ganing, Henan Shengtong Juyuan will break the capacity distribution of polycarbonate in East China, Southwest and North China. The production capacity of polycarbonate in Central China has increased, which is expected to drive up the demand for bisphenol A. In the short-term, the industry's focus is on the production time of two sets of 65,000 tons/year polycarbonate plant in the second phase of Liaocheng Luxi Polycarbonate Co., Ltd. If the device can be put into production smoothly, it will undoubtedly increase the weight of the bisphenol A market in the first half of the year.
In summary, in the context of the strong expansion of downstream polycarbonate, the future supply of bisphenol A is tightly expected, and the market trend is clearer.