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Shanghai Securities News (Reporter Chen Qichen) China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of polycarbonate (PC). According to the latest report provided by the industry organization Asia Chemical Consulting, China's polycarbonate production capacity will be released in the next few years. Considering that there are currently 500,000 tons of high-end products imported, it means that China's polycarbonate industry will fall into fact. Overcapacity, profit margins or shrinking under the double squeeze of raw material prices and product prices continue to fall.
The data shows that by the end of 2018, China has completed the production of polycarbonate production capacity of 1.16 million tons / year, accounting for more than 20% of the global polycarbonate production capacity, but the gap between supply and demand is huge, foreign dependence has been high, net imports have been It has exceeded one million tons for many years. Therefore, polycarbonate project investment has become a hot spot in recent years, reflecting the demand for transformation and upgrading of the petrochemical industry. From the big data mining service provider - Xiwei Technology and Asia Chemical Consulting's research and development of the Chemical Production and Sales Index (PSI), represented by 22 A-share listed companies, compared with the same period in 2018 in the second quarter of 2019 The production and sales of the chemical industry as a whole have shown a downward trend. Looking for products with market potential has become a focus of widespread concern in the industry.
Driven by huge market demand, high value-added products, and domestic and foreign capital technologies, the planned, new or expanded polycarbonate projects will be launched in China, and the next few years will be the concentrated release period of China's polycarbonate capacity. According to statistics, there are currently nearly 20 polycarbonate projects under construction in China, with a total capacity of more than 4.6 million tons/year. It is conservatively expected that China will release 2.41 million tons/year of polycarbonate capacity by 2023, when China will be released. The total production capacity of polycarbonate is nearly 3.6 million tons/year.
In the next few years, China's polycarbonate supply and demand market will undergo major changes. It is optimistic that China will continue to be the most important engine for global demand for polycarbonate growth, with an average annual growth rate of 6.7%. China's demand will reach 2.55 million tons in 2023. The output will also increase rapidly with the release of new capacity. It is estimated that China's polycarbonate production will reach 2.44 million tons in 2023. From the data alone, by 2023, China's polycarbonate is basically in a state of balance between supply and demand. But in fact, China's current import of more than 1 million tons of polycarbonate products is not a simple alternative. Optimistic expectations, the import of high-end products that cannot be replaced is as high as 500,000 tons, which means that China's polycarbonate industry will actually be overcapacity by then.
Bisphenol A (BPA) is an indispensable raw material for polycarbonate production and is one of the key factors in the competition of China's polycarbonate industry. The industry believes that only when the difference between the polycarbonate product and the bisphenol A raw material reaches 6,000 yuan / ton or more, the polycarbonate device can basically maintain a certain profit level. Since the second half of 2018, due to the sharp decline in polycarbonate prices, the price difference between polycarbonate and bisphenol A has rapidly narrowed, and it has remained at around 6,000 yuan/ton. The industry has turned from profitable period to breakeven and even universal. The stage of loss.
Due to the limited production capacity of China's bisphenol A in the next few years, it is expected that the supply and demand gap of bisphenol A will increase sharply, and the competition for bisphenol A resources will become more intense. In the future, the profit margin of polycarbonate will shrink sharply under the double squeeze of bisphenol A raw material prices and the continuous decline in product prices.
In this context, the 4th Polycarbonate Technology and Market Symposium, which will be held in Hangzhou from August 28th to 29th, will attract more attention in the industry. The conference will discuss PC industry policy analysis and future market outlook; new PC project progress; PC project investment planning and application market analysis; PC downstream application innovation and future prospects; raw material bisphenol A market and investment opportunities; PC recycling.